Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for November 06, 2007.   Subscribers, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Cubes Speculator Bulletin” for November 06, 2007.   Subscribers, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Trading the Market” Bulletin for November 06, 2007. Subscriber, please click here to login.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on November 03, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年11月5日 (週一) 的市場技術分析。

我們在上週四晚的“Cubes Speculator Bulletin”中指出：“由於週四的拋賣幅度頗大，股市勢必有一次『微型』回彈。”果不其然，上週五美股高收，道指收盤上漲27點，報收13595 點，漲幅0.2%。科技股為主的納指攀升近0.6%，報收2810點。

上週高漲的一隻股票是eHealth, Inc (EHTH)。EHTH是一家領先的在線健康保險商，為個人、家庭以及小型企業提供服務。上週五，該股大漲15.83%，一週漲幅達22.66%。之前，該公司報告，2007年9月30日結束的第三季度盈利合每股15美分，比Reuters Estimates預計的12美分高出了3美分。

自10月30日我們在“Swing Trader Bulletin”中將其列為買進對像以來，EHTH的累計收益已達26%。該股的當前價位較高，但我們預計它在回調至近期突破點(約30美元的位置)時會吸引到買家。

上週五美元再次走弱，從而為包括黃金在內的眾多商品的攀高提供了動力。上週五黃金大漲2.39%，每盎司報收806.30美元。

能源方面：在美元走低的背景下，原油價格上週五大漲2.61%，每桶報收95.93美元。

誰能想像，就在不久前，其實也就是去年，黃金逼近1000美元、原油衝破100美元還只是不著邊際的狂想？我不禁要問，去年聖誕節那些敲著桌子賭定油價會回到30美元的預言家們都到哪去了？

隨著黃金和原油價格的逐日攀升，我想，通貨膨脹之魔也會很快現身。

從上圖的消費品調查指數(通貨膨脹指標)可以看出，通貨膨脹實際上已經抬頭。一旦該指數突破了06年的高點，類似於通貨膨脹、利率飛漲以及經濟放緩或者經濟蕭條等眾多利空消息將會接踵而至。

來看主要股指：

10月15日我們就發出警告：“道瓊斯交通運輸業指數在技術面上表現出的不協調是道瓊斯工業平均指數近期盤整的一個徵兆……此次盤整將會急劇而且迅速。”

不久之後，道瓊斯工業平均指數就下跌了約500點。與此同時，道瓊斯交通運輸業指數也持續在52週的低點附近掙扎，因此也一直未能確認道瓊斯工業平均指數在10月9日創下的歷史高點。

圖中可以看出，自7月份的拋賣以來，道瓊斯交通運輸業指數一直在長達四年的上升趨勢線這一阻力位的下方運行。這看上去並不十分有利。

一旦道瓊斯交通運輸業指數跌破8月份的低點，主流媒體就會發出大量熊市出現的消息，道氏理論的拋賣信號也會蜂擁而至。

道氏理論認為，股市的主要趨勢必須得到道瓊斯工業平均指數和道瓊斯交通運輸業指數相似運行方向的確認。只有上述兩個指數達到了新的高點或者低點，股市重要的趨勢才算得到了確認。如果這兩個指數沒能達到新高或者新低，股市將會回到其先前的交易區間。

受次貸危機負面影響的重創，僅僅8個月時間銀行股就損失了2002-2007年年間約50%的收成。毋庸置疑，銀行股還要進一步下跌，但在當前水平下，銀行股應該有能力吸引到價值型投資者。銀行股指數的下一個支撐位位於61.8%的斐波納契折線處，約420點的位置。阻力位約為500點。

“銀行股怎麼走，大盤就怎麼跟。”

隨著次貸危機方面的擔憂再次顯現，標普500指數過去幾天時間就將8-10月份累計收益的38%損失殆盡。目前該指數正在支撐位附近移動。如果標普500指數沒能在這一水平處吸引到買家，1485點水平可能會被重新造訪。

總結：從上週五的交易狀況可以看出，一股猛烈的負面情緒正朝金融股逼近。在這種情況下，好消息總在上方，而壞消息則在底部。當然，消息可能會一直壞下去，但由於銀行股和標普500指數正在關鍵支撐位處運行，現在可能正是著手尋找賣家投降的信號以及挖掘有價值股票的好時機。此外，自聯儲8月中旬降息以來(原油和黃金)商品價格的直線上升以及美元的相對下跌都表明，類似於8月末的一次流動性刺激下的反彈不久將會出現。總的來講，情況可能會繼續糟糕下去，而且也有時候還會糟糕得毫無道理，但這就是股市。而在一切發生改變之前，股市的整體狀況依然良好。如果道瓊斯交通運輸業指數也能助陣，那對股市將大有裨益。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on November 03, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday November 05, 2007.

We’ve offered in our Thursday evening “Cubes Speculator Bulletin” that: “given the magnitude of Thursday sell-off, market is conditioned to a “mini” bounce” – stocks closed higher Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished 27 points, or 0.2 percent, higher to 13595 and the tech-laden NASDAQ climbed nearly 0.6 percent to 2810.

One stock that jumped significantly on the week was eHealth, Inc (EHTH). Shares of the leading online source of health insurance for individuals, families and small businesses, jumped +15.83% Friday, and +22.66% for the week, after the company reported the third quarter ended September 30, 2007 earnings of $0.15 per share, $0.03 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.12.

EHTH gained about +26% since profiled in our October 30 “Swing Trader Bulletin” as a buy candidate. Though admittedly extended at current levels, expect the shares to draw buyers on a pullback to recent bullish breakout point, around $30.

The dollar lost ground again Friday, and hence, provided a boost to a number of commodities, including gold which traded up 2.39% to $806.30 per ounce.

And energy. Crude oil gained +2.61% to $95.93 per barrel amid a lower greenback.

Can you imagine that not so long ago, as a matter of fact it was last year, $1000 gold and $100 crude were the wildest dreams? And I can’t help but wondering where are the pundits, who were pounding the table for $30 oil on CNBC last Christmas?

With gold and oil prices raise rapidly day after day, the inflation genie will be out of the bottle in no time, I guess!

As you can see from the Commodity Research (or Inflation) Index chart above, inflation has, in fact, raised its ugly head. We’ll get to hear a lot of the bear market stories like inflation, interest rate hike, slow growth or recession…etc as soon as the index takes out the ’06 high.

Let’s take a look at the major indices:

Shortly after our October 15 warning: “the technical non-confirmation in the Transports is indicative of the Industrial’s near term correction…[which] could be sharp and swift.”

The Dow Industrial dropped about -500 points. And the Transport, meanwhile, continues to struggle around the 52-week low and hence, still not able to confirm the Industrial’s all-time high recorded on October 9.

As you can see, the Dow Jones Transport Average continues to trade below the four-year rising trendline as resistant since the July’s sell-off. This doesn’t look very healthy.

You’ll get to hear a lot about the primary downtrend or Dow Theory’s sell signal from the main stream media as soon as the Transport drops below the August’s low.

For those who are not familiar with the term, Dow Theory suggests that a major trend in the stock market must be confirmed by a similar movement in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average. A significant trend is not confirmed until both Dow Jones indexes reach the new highs or lows; if they don’t, the market will fall back to its former trading range.

Hurt by the negative impact of the subprime lending crisis, the banks gave back about 50% of the 2002-2007 gains in just 8 months. Although admittedly vulnerable for further declines, the banks should be able to attract value oriented investors at current level. Next support is at the 61.8% Fib Retracement about 420. Resistant is about 500.

“As goes the bank so goes the tape.”

The S&P 500 Index gave back about 38% of the August-October’s gain the past couple of days amid a renew subprime worries. The index is currently trading at support. A failure to attract buyers at this level suggests that it might have to revisit the 1485 level.

Bottom line: evidence of aggressively negative sentiment toward the financials was seen in last Friday trading action. In this business, news is best at top and worse at bottom. The news can always get worse, of course; though with the banks and S&P are trading at important support, this could be a good time to begin to look for signs of seller capitulation and hunting for value in the group. Further, the vertical lift in commodities (oil and gold) and the directly related drop in the U.S. dollar since the Fed cut the discount rate in mid-August suggests another liquidity propelled rally (similar to that of the late August) could follow shortly. General speaking, things could continue to look ugly and sometimes, make no sense though these are what this market is making of. And until that change, the overall market condition is still good for stocks. And it would be helpful if Transport also joins the party.

Until next time, good luck!

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.