Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for October 22, 2007. Subscriber, please click here to login.

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Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on October 18, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年10月19日 (週五) 的市場技術分析。

週四股市漲跌不一。標普500指數和道指均小幅下跌，而納指微漲。總的來講，週四的交易表現有點“令人失望” 。大盤週三盤中的急劇看漲反轉過後，我們期待看到是成功考驗移動平均線支撐位那激動人心的一刻。然而週四股市的交易卻一片平坦。這一價格表現說明市場參與者還持不確定態度。當然這種狀況不會永久持續下去，但在股市明確其最小阻力位置之前，在一旁觀望不是壞事。

不管怎樣，面對創紀錄的原油價格，市場情緒指標顯示出了投資者高漲的熱情。Investor’s Intelligence最近一次情緒調查的結果(62%)為2004年12月以來最高的看漲讀數。但請記住，情緒指標是逆向指標——極端的看漲讀數一般在頂部附近出現，表明市場情緒過度樂觀。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。該指數繼續在移動均線的支撐位附近橫向整理。我們說過，如果該指數沒能在當前水平吸引到買家，很可能會跌至1525點附近，展開一次大 “甩賣”。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。該指數週四毫無建樹。和標普500指數相似，如果道指不能在當前吸引買家，可能也不得不略微下滑，跌到13500點。

總結：雖然10月期權到期日臨近，但我們仍相信只要大盤能夠守在週三低點的關鍵支撐位上方，股市應該有能力在當前水平位置吸引到買家。但我們的態度更為謹慎，只是有保留地看漲。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on October 18, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday October 19, 2007. 

Stock finished mix Thursday with both of the S&P and Dow close slightly below the unchanged mark and the NASDAQ slightly above it.  Overall, Thursday trading action was kinda “disappointed”.  After Wednesday sharp intraday bullish reversal, we were expected to see a great deal of excitement surrounding the successful test of support at the moving average area.  Instead, the market traded as flat as a pancake Thursday.  Such price action is indicative of an uncertainty among market participants.  This of course won’t last forever, though until the market defines where the line of least resistance lies, stay on the sideline ain’t a very bad idea.

For whatever it worth, sentiment readings displayed a vigorous enthusiasm in a face of a record high oil prices.  The latest Investor’s Intelligence sentiment survey showed the highest bullish reading (62%) since December 2004.  Bear in mind that this is a contrarian indicator – an extreme bullish reading demonstrates excessive optimism in the market and generally occurs near tops.

Let’s take a look at the major indices:

The S&P 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame.  The board market index continues to base sideway around the area of moving average support.   As mentioned, the index might have to put on a big “sale” – goes down to around 1525 – should it fail to attract buyer at current level

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame.  The blue-chips had done virtually nothing today.  Similar to the S&P 500, the Dow might have to go a bit lower – to around 13500 – if it fails to lure buyers at current level.

Bottom line: edging into October option expiration, while still believe that market should be able to draw buyers at current level as long as it holds above key support around Wednesday’s low, we’re taking the bullish bias with a grain of salt.

Until next time, good luck!

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.