Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for October 16, 2007. Subscriber, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for October 16, 2007.  Subscriber, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Trading the Market” Bulletin for October 16, 2007. Subscriber, please click here to login.

Editor’s Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

As we’ve offered in the previous Market Outlook – “there is a strong case for a meaningful short-term corrective phase” – stocks awash in red dye Monday with the Dow lost more than -100 point to 13984.

“Swing Trader Bulletin”

• Despite the overall weakness, shares of Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc (VNDA) – profiled on our Oct. 09 “Swing Trader Bulletin” as a potential buy candidate – jumped more than +5% today on the heel of last week +20% gains.

“Cubes Speculator Bulletin”

October 12, 2007 10:30 PM.

• The short-term bearish bias remains intact.
• Expect the Q’s to bounce within the…

The Q’s had slipped into negative territory, lost as much as -1.40%, after strong opening was met by an aggressive wave of selling. The out of the money October 52 put options gained as much as +150% during Monday session.

You see, successful trading is all about the quack count. If the ducks align, like yesterday, we’ll give you a ping in advance so that you’ll have sufficient time to “hit ‘em hard”. When they don’t, we’ll also chime in so that you can take a day off and go play golf. It’s so easy, even a 10 years old kid can do it.

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence’s Newsletter Services - “best-of-web” technical analysis.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on October 13, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年10月15日 (週一) 的市場技術分析。

當標普500指數果斷突破長達兩週的交易區間，多頭宣稱我們已經脫離危險，[信貸危機] 最糟糕的日子已成過去之後，股市立刻展開一日大規模的下跌反轉，道指數分鐘的跌幅就超過200點。一個令人關注的問題隨即提出：“07年股市是否已經見頂？” 為了找到答案，讓我們來看看投資者情緒和技術面這兩個重要的交易指標：

芝加哥期權交易所(CBOE)波動率指數(VIX)是衡量股市風險的常用工具，通常被稱作“投資者恐慌指標”。VIX由眾多的標普500指數期權的隱含波動性編撰而成。通常，VIX指數在股市走低時增大，而當股市上漲時減小。但可以看出，在標普500指數達到歷史高點的時候，VIX指數並沒有下降。該指數似乎在7月的看漲突破點的支撐位置防守地相當不錯。事實上，這預示著市場參與者的不確定性和緊張情緒。

根據道瓊斯理論，股市的主要趨勢必須得到道瓊斯工業平均指數和道瓊斯運輸業平均指數同向走勢的確認。直到這兩個道指指數達到新高點或新低點，股市的關鍵趨勢才能得到確認。如果這兩個指數達不到新高或新低，股市將跌回其先前的交易區間。

儘管大盤整體走強，但道瓊斯運輸業平均指數仍在夏季的低點附近掙扎。因此，沒能確認道瓊斯工業平均指數的歷史高點。而根據道瓊斯理論，道瓊斯運輸業平均指數(新高點)缺乏確認的技術面形態預示道瓊斯工業平均指數近期將出現一次盤整。

股市已經抵達跨越所有時限的超賣區域，進入關鍵整固階段的前奏狀態。近期的反彈並沒有伴隨任何重要的盤整的出現。所有這一切都表明即將到來的盤整不但明顯還很迅速。

總結：儘管股市長期走勢看漲，但一次具有重要意義的短期盤整期很可能即將到來。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on October 13, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday October 15, 2007.

Immediately after the S&P printed a clear breakout from the annoying two-week trading range, and the bulls claimed that we’re out of the woods and the worst is behind us [as regarded to the credit crisis], the market threw a nasty, massive one day downside reversal in which the Dow plunged more than 200 points in matter of minutes. And this had raised the burning question: “Have we seen the ‘07 highs?” To find out, let’s examine the two important trading metrics: investors’ sentiment and technical.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the “investor fear gauge”. It is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 index options. In general, VIX increases as the market goes down and decreases when the market moves in an upward direction. As you can see, the VIX had refused to go down on the face of S&P’s record high. It seemed to hold on pretty well to support at the July’s bullish breakout point. As a matter of fact, this is indicative of the uncertainty and nervousness among market participants.

According to Dow Theory, a major trend in the stock market must be confirmed by a similar movement in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average. A significant trend is not confirmed until both Dow Jones indexes reach the new highs or lows; if they don’t, the market will fall back to its former trading range.

Despite the overall market strength, the Transports is still struggling around the summer low and hence, failed to confirm the Industrial’s all-time high. And according to Dow Theory, the technical non-confirmation (of new highs) in the Transports is indicative of the Industrial’s near term correction.

Combining all of these above with the fact that market has reached an overbought region across all time-frames, a situation that is a precursor to a significant corrective phase, and the recent rally has not been accompanied by any significant correction, suggested that the upcoming correction could be sharp and swift.

In summary, though the long-term trend is bullish, there is a strong case for a meaningful short-term corrective phase to materialize soon.

Until next time, good luck!

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.