Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s “Cubes Speculator Bulletin” for October 09, 2007. Subscribers, please click here to login.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on October 07, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年10月8日 (週一) 的市場技術分析。

在上次的前瞻分析中我們指出：“股市的大趨勢保持不變——強勢的股市正在準備突破新的高點”。果然，伴隨不溫不火的就業報告，上週五標普500指數收於歷史高點。當日任何SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)的看漲期權都可能獲得3位數的收益。

上週五盤前，勞工部發佈的報告顯示9月份非農支薪人數增加了11萬，此前市場預期為增加10萬。8月份就業人數減少4000曾引起眾多憂慮，但修正後的報告顯示當月的實際就業人數增加了8.9萬。

總體而言，非農支薪人數報告對美元來說是最具指導意義的市場指標。儘管盤中波動劇烈，但美元最終還是在報告發佈之前所盤旋的位置不遠處收盤。事實上，面臨不溫不火的就業報告，美元並沒有走低，這表明交易者相信就業數字已經大大降低了聯儲繼續降息的可能性。而這對美元來說是看漲的信號。

上面是美元指數的短期日線圖。相對強弱指標(RSI)在日線圖的長期支撐位附近已經出現了有利的背離。技術面而言，只要該指數能保持在77點水平之上，短期走勢就是看漲。

然而投資者可能會問，這和股票又有什麼關係呢？ 事實上，自2003年來，美元已經成為股票市場，特別是藍籌股(跨國公司股票)的一個重要參照物。

上圖可以看出，從90年代中期至2003年初，美元和藍籌股的關聯度非常高。關於二者2003年的“分離”解釋不一，在此不做深入的解說。但投資者要瞭解的是自2003年初以來，幾乎每一隻藍籌股的新高點都會伴隨著美元的一個低谷。上週之前，這一規律仍未改變。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。儘管上週五最後30分鐘湧入的拋壓導致該指數收於2007年10月1日創下的迄今最高點下方約30點的位置，但美東時間當日下午3時左右，該指數刷新了歷史紀錄。最後出現的拋賣表明由於道指的新高缺乏美元的確認(見上面美元指數的圖表)，交易者還對是否買進股票猶疑不定。缺乏確認的技術形態表明該指數正處於或非常接近一個意義深遠的高點。

總結：儘管美元可能已經達到短期的交易低點，但(道指和美元指數之間)短期內得不到確認的事實可能並不會對道指的技術面構成長期的破壞。此外，我們相信只要各項指標能保持當前的利好水平，美元指數中期的走勢將更為看漲。雖然我們曾在股市處於八月中旬低點的時候表現得相當激進，但與上述觀點保持一致，我們現在持更為謹慎的態度。
(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on October 07, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday October 08, 2007.

As we’ve opined in the previous Market Outlook: “the larger picture remains unchanged – we have a strong market that is poised for a breakout to new high”, equity market rose sharply Friday with the S&P finished at a new all-time closing high amid a “Goldilocks” job report. Any SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) call option traded could have made a triple digit profit.

Before Friday’s opening bell, the Dept. of Labor reported an increase of 110K in September nonfarm payrolls, which is slightly larger than the expected gain of 100K. Although the most significant headline was the 4K decline previously reported for August, which had caused so much angst was revised sharply higher to an increase of 89K.

General speaking, the non-farm payrolls report is the most market moving indicator for the US Dollar. Yet despite sharp intraday volatility, the Dollar ended the US trading session not far from where it hovered prior to the payrolls release. In fact, the Dollar’s refusal to go down in a face of a “goldilocks” employment report indicated that traders believe that the payrolls number had significantly reduced the chance that the Federal Reserve will continue lowering interest rates. And this is bullish for the Dollar.

The US Dollar Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) had printed a positive divergence on the daily chart around the area of the long-term support. Technically speaking, the short-term picture is bullish as long as the index holds above the 77 level.

“OK, it’s good to know but does it have anything to do with stocks?” You might be wondering. Well, as a matter of fact, the Dollar has been an important proxy for equity market, especially the blue-chips (transnational corporation) stocks, since 2003.

As you can see from the chart above, the US dollar was highly correlated to the blue-chip index from mid nineties to early 2003. There were a lot of explanations to the 2003 “separation” though it’s beyond the scope of this newsletter to go into details. All you have to know is this: since early 2003 almost every blue chip’s new peak is accompanied by a new low in the US Dollar. This is true until last week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. The blue-chip index printed a fresh record high last Friday around 3 PM (ET) though the last 30 minutes sell-off had caused the index to close roughly 30 points below the life time high recorded on October 1, 2007. This [last minute sell-off] indicated that traders were hesitated to pay up for stocks due to the fact that the blue-chips’ high new didn’t confirm by the Dollar (see the US Dollar Index chart above). This technical non-confirmation suggested that the blue-chips index is at or very close to a meaningful peak. A decline to below 13700 will confirm this.

In summary, the short-term non-confirmation (between the blue-chips Index and US Dollar Index) might not result in any real long-term technical damage for the blue-chips though it suggested that the Dollar might have reached a short-term tradable low. Further, we believe that the intermediate-term picture [for the US Dollar] will become more bullish as long as the indicators retain the current positive states. Consistent with these thoughts, while we were pretty aggressive on stocks at the mid-August lows, we are now more cautious.

Until next time, good luck!

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.