Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for October 03, 2007. Subscriber, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for October 03, 2007.  Subscriber, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Trading the Market” Bulletin for October 03, 2007. Subscriber, please click here to login.

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] Editor’s Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

“Swing Trader Bulletin”

• Shares of Immersion Corporation (IMMR) – a long holding in our “Swing Trader Bulletin” Portfolio – jumped more than +7% today on the heel of last week’s whopping +14% gains.

“Cubes Speculator Bulletin”

October 01, 2007 @ 11:30 PM

• The “cubes” printed another new high today though it seemed to us that the market might be getting ahead of itself…nonetheless the trend is up and we have to respect it.
• It’s too dangerous to chase the bulls and hence, remain on the sideline if you didn’t pull the trigger on the September 12 buy signal.

As you can see, QQQQ opened lower this morning though the stock managed to overcome the early weakness to close around the flat-line. Further, the September 12 Buy signal has produced more than 6% gain so far on stock and a somewhat 4 digits gain on call options.

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence’s Newsletter Services - “best-of-web” technical analysis.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on October 01, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年10月2日 (週二) 的市場技術分析。

如前所料，股市第四季度迎來高開，納指收於2001年以來的最高水平，道指收盤也創下了歷史高點。

總體來講，昨天對華爾街來說是非常不錯的一天，標普500指數的10個板塊中9個都高收。雖然花旗集團(C)以及UBS (UBS) 雙雙傳來負面消息，但金融板塊昨天卻意外地成為最大贏家，漲幅高達 2.08%。盤前，花旗集團發出預警稱，由於信貸市場的動盪，預計第三財季盈利將比去年同期減少約60%。同時，據報道，UBS的首席執行官在接受採訪時 表示，受信貸市場危機的影響，公司預計第三季度將出現虧損，並準備註銷34億美元資產。

上面是銀行股指數(BKX)的短期日線圖。顯然，上述預警發出之後該指數對50日均線的看漲突破表明金融板塊已經達到了短期交易底部。因此，只要該指數能夠守在105點水平的支撐位之上，BKX考驗112點主要阻力位的可能性將很大。

來看主要股指：

值得注意的是，在9月27日(週四)晚間我們在“Cubes Speculator Bulletin” 文章中對道指做出看漲評論之後，該指數週一立即實現了突破，創下了新的歷史高點。當時我們說：“在美東時間15:24:50，Dow Diamond ETF (DIA)的成交量達到989,000股，約為日均交易量的10%。『道指15000點』很可能不久將重新成為焦點。”

圖中可以看出，週一上午道指急劇攀升，繼突破14000點大關之後，該股指一度上漲220點，達到14115點。

技術面而言，昨天的看漲突破為該指數年底之前考驗15000點打下了基礎。未來幾天該股指的持續上揚將確認這一點。短期支撐位約為13900點。

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。受金融、投資銀行和券商板塊的強勢推動，該指數已非常接近7月高點。無疑，7月高點對投資者的誘惑不可阻擋。我們說過該指數若能果斷地突破1555點，則將為目標為1630點的爆發打下基礎。短期支撐位約為1530點。

總結：週一的交易狀況表明阻力最小的通道仍為上行，儘管如此，由於股市現處於數年來的高點，因此對金融股要加以關注，因為我們一直在說：“金融股怎麼走，大盤就怎麼跟”。這一點非常重要，應當密切關注。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on October 01, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday October 02, 2007.

As expected, equity market started the fourth quarter on a high note with the NASDAQ closed at its highest level since 2001 and the Dow finished at an all-time high.

Overall, it was a very nice day on the Street with nine of the ten S&P 500 sectors finished the day in the green. The financial was an “unusual” winner, given the negative news from Citigroup (C) and UBS (UBS), the sector posted the biggest gain, up +2.08% for the day. Before the bell, Citigroup warned its third quarter earnings would fall approximately 60% from a year ago due to the credit turmoil. Citigroup did say it expected fourth quarter earnings to be back to normal. The CEO of UBS, meanwhile, reportedly said in an interview that the company expects to take a $3.4 billion write-down and a third quarter loss due to credit market woes.

The Bank Index (BKX) daily chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Apparently, today bullish breakout above the 50-day moving average in the wake of these warnings suggested that the sector had reached a short-term tradable bottom. With that said, there is a high probability for a test of major resistant about 112 as long as the index holds above support at the 105 level.

Let’s take a look at the major indices:

It worth notice that the Dow broke out to a new record high Monday immediately after our bullish comment in the “Cubes Speculator Bulletin” on Thursday September 27 evening: “there were 989,000 Dow Diamond ETF (DIA) crossed the tape at 15:24:50 ET. That was about 10% of the daily volume. More likely than not, the “Dow 15K” chatter will back be sooner rather than later.”

As you can see, the Dow rose sharply this morning and traded as high as 14,115.51or +220 points followed a bullish breakout above the psychological 14K level.

Technically speaking, today bullish breakout had set the stage for a test of the 15K level by year end. An upside follow through in a next couple of days will confirm this. Short-term support is about 13900.

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Fueled by strength in the finance and investment banks & brokerages industries, the board index had rallied back within “sneezing distance” of July’s peak. Clearly, this target is just too tempting for traders to resist. As mentioned, a clear breakout above 1,555 would set the stage for an explosion higher, possibly into the 1630 area. Short-term support is about 1530.

Bottom line: Monday trading action suggests the path with least resistant is still to the upside. Although with market hanging at multi-year high, keep an eye on the financials for, as we’ve always said, “As goes the bank, so goes the tape.” This is very important and it should be on your trading radar.

Until next time, good luck.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.