Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s “Cubes Speculator Bulletin” for September 28, 2007. Subscribers, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for September 28, 2007. Subscriber, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for September 28, 2007. Subscriber, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Trading the Market” Bulletin for September 28, 2007. Subscriber, please click here to login.

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] As we’ve predicted in the previous Market Outlook:

“Short-term outlook is bullish until proven otherwise”

Stocks added on to previous gains with the Dow up 34 points to 13912. It worth notice that the blue-chip index is about 100 points to an all-time high of 14021.95 recorded on July 17, 2007. The S&P 500 Index added about 6 points to finish at 1531.

Overall, it was a good day on the Street and so our “Swing Trader Bulletin”. As a matter of fact, of the eight different portfolio holdings, four posted an average gain of 2-4%, two carried a gain of 1-2% and only two decline less than 1% for the day. Moneygram International (MGI) gained +$0.70 or 3.24% today. The position holds an unrealized gain of about 5% in just 2 days. Trizetto Group Inc (TZIX) gained +$0.27 or 1.50% today. The position holds an amazing unrealized gain of 7.50% since profiled a couple days ago. CBIZ Inc (CBZ) gained +$0.26 or 3.36% today. The position holds an unrealized gain of 6% since profiled a couple days ago.

Editor’s Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

“Cubes Speculator Bulletin”

September 26, 2007 @ 10:30 PM

• As expected, the speculative action remains though there are signs of profit taking on big names like GOOG, MSFT, AMZN…etc. And this does not bode well for the bulls.
• The “cubes” is short-term overbought.
• We’re back to the wait-and-see period.

As predicted, QQQQ whipsaw around the flat-line for an entire Thursday session.

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Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on September 26, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年9月27日 (週四) 的市場技術分析。

在昨天的前瞻分析中我們說過：“股市就要出現大的轉機。[週二] 的交易狀況表明阻力最小的通道仍為上行”。果然，週三股市全面反彈，道指上漲100點左右，漲幅0.72%，報收13878點。

我們 “Swing Trader Bulletin” 投資組合中的長期持股——American Eagle Outfitters Inc (AEO) 昨日表現不凡。週三，這家服飾製造商的股價高漲了5%以上。之前Wachovia Capital Markets的一位分析師調升了AEO的股票評級，認為該公司在商品線、利潤率和股價方面具有優勢。

我們已經在“Cubes Speculator Bulletin”文章中說過：“高貝塔值股票背後存在非常激進的投機行為。因為基金經理們都盡全力在第三季度結束之前補充自己的持股數量。這一狀況很可能在明天繼續出現。”不出所料，高貝塔值的指數——納斯達克100指數昨天的表現仍優於其它同類大型股指數。

圖中可以看出，昨天納斯達克100指數再次創下數年來的新高，而納指則仍在7月高點的下方運行。事實上，這種“分裂”的市場形態不會一直持續下去。大盤走勢還是上行，我們應該對此表示尊重。

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。該指數正在穿越長達6天的三角區的上邊界。總的來講，這是看漲的圖表形態。我們說過，該指數看漲突破該三角區的上邊界預示7月高點——約1555點將受到考驗 。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。顯然，該指數昨天正在對13870-14000點的上方“關鍵”阻力位進行考驗。當前，我們不知道多頭是否能夠成功拿下該阻力位，但是持續突破14000點將引起該指數一次中期反彈，從而可能將該指數推至15000點水平。

總結：除非出現相反證據，股市短期前景看漲。儘管如此，今天還是要對修正後的第二季度GDP數據以及新屋銷售報告加以關注，因為這兩個報告都有可能改變股市的運行方向。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.