Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] as we’ve opined in the previous Market Outlook “the Dow third attempt to cross over the 50-day moving average is likely to be greeted by sellers” - stocks sold-off sharply Friday morning as the majority of the major indices surrendered nearly the entirety of yesterday’s gains in the opening minutes (Dow -100, NAZ -20, S&P -9) before recovered and close around the flat-line.

As predicted, energy (XOI) closed slightly lower for the day after the rally from Augusts’ low ran into resistant around the 61.8% Fib retracement.

Editor’s Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

“Cubes Speculator Bulletin”

September 13, 2007 @ 10:30 PM

Price follow-through to the upside today so yesterday’s buy signal must be a beginning of the third buying wave – starting from August 16’s low.

September 14, 2007 @ 1:00 PM

As expected, the “cubes” moved lower this morning and hit the first target @ $48.75.

We suspect the tape might drag sideway into the close.

Just so that you know, NASDAQ-100 ETF (QQQQ) after spending the entire Friday afternoon bouncing back and forth around the $49 level, and settled around the unchanged mark. You see, no matter how “bad” and/or how “tough” the tape is, we still can squeeze a couple of pennies out of it, here and there, if we wanted to.

Despite the overall volatility, the “Swing trader Bulletin” continues to do incredibly well. As a matter of fact, the newly setup Omniture Inc (OMTR) jumped about 5% today. The position shows an amazing unrealized gain of almost 10% after only 2 days of holding.

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Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on September 13, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年9月14日 (週五) 的市場技術分析。

隨著美元創下多年新低，週四股市出現反彈。技術面而言，此次反彈主要應歸功於藍籌股，是疲軟的美元激起了投資者對跨國公司的買進興趣。道指當日上漲了133點，漲幅為1%。

值得一提的是能源股創下了歷史新高——紐約商業交易所週四原油價格每桶報收80.09美元。

美國石油指數(XOI)昨日再漲1%。在我們對該板塊做出看漲評價之後，XOI已累計上漲約6%。61.8%斐波納契折線為該指數上方的阻力位。當前，我們不知道該阻力位防守能否成功，但持續突破這一阻力位，XOI考驗7月高點——約1500點的可能性將增大。

之前說過，週四股市的攀升主要是受藍籌股的推動。小型股和科技股雖也有所漲，但仍不及大型股表現出色。

提到科技股，我們在9月13日的“Cubes Speculation Bulletin” 文章中說過：“9月12日的買進信號可能會成為8月16日以來的第三輪買進熱潮的開始……QQQQ很可能會保持在49.15美元的水平。而該ETF也非常 有可能以此價位收盤。”事實上，週四下午QQQQ曾一度漲至49.35美元。之後納斯達克100 ETF (QQQQ)小幅回調並最終收於我們預期的49.15美元。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。週四大盤的高漲將該指數推到了50日均線上方。這一表現令人振奮。如果今天該指數繼續走高，尤其是站在“備受關 注”的1500點之上，本月餘下時光將保持看漲的基調，同時該指數考驗7月高點的可能性也將增大。短期支撐位約為1439點。阻力位約為1500點。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。和標普500指數類似，道指昨天也同樣跨過了50日均線。圖中可以看出，該指數先前曾兩次跨越50日均線，但所遇拋壓甚為猛烈。因此，對於週五的交易狀況我們持看跌態度。

總結：如前所說，道指第三次穿越50日均線的嘗試(見上圖)很可能再次遭遇拋盤打壓。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

This is Capital Essence’s “Cubes Speculator Bulletin” - Mid-Day Update for September 14, 2007. Subscribers, please click here to login.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on September 13, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday September 14, 2007.

Equity market rallied Thursday as the dollar hit a new multi-year low. Technically speaking, it was mostly a blue chip affair as a weakening dollar sparked buying interest in multinational companies. Unsurprisingly, the Dow added 133 points or 1% for the day.

It worth notice that stock advanced in the face of a new record high energy price – crude oil closed at $80.09 per barrel on NYMEX Thursday.

The Amex Oil Index (XOI) added on to previous gain, up another percent for the day. It had gained about 6% immediately followed our bullish comment the sector. The index has an overhead resistant around the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement (see chart). At this moment, it’s unknown whether this level can be taken out or not. Although, a sustain breakout above it will increase the probability for a test of July’s high, about 1500.

As noted above, Thursday advance was very much a blue chip show. Small-cap and tech stocks were also trading higher, though, trailed well behind their large-cap counterparts.

Speaking of tech, we’ve noted on the September 13 “Cubes Speculation Bulletin” that: “September 12 buy signal could be a beginning of the third buying wave – starting from August 16’s low… QQQQ seems to hang on very well to the $49.15 level. More likely than not, the tape is going to close this way.” As a matter of fact, after hitting as high as $49.35 on Thursday afternoon, the NASDAQ-100 ETF (QQQQ) pulled back slightly and settled around the expected $49.15 level.

Let’s take a look at the major index charts:

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Thursday advance had helped to push the board market index above the 50-day moving average. The action is encouraging. An upside follow-through tomorrow, especially if accompany by a move to above the “closely watch” 1500 level, will set the bullish tone for the rest of the month; and hence, increase the probability for a test of July’s high. Short-term support is around 1439. Resistant is about 1500.

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Similar to the S&P 500, the blue-chips index had also crossed above the 50-day moving average today. As you can see, there were two similar occasions in which a cross to above this level was met with an even more aggressive wave of selling. With that said, we’d walk into Friday trading session with a bearish bias.

Bottom line: as noted above, the third attempt to cross over the 50-day moving average [as printed on the Dow chart] is likely to be greeted by sellers.

Until next time, good luck.

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.