Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for September 07, 2007. Subscriber, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for September 07, 2007. Subscriber, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Trading the Market” Bulletin for September 07, 2007. Subscriber, please click here to login.

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] Overall it was a quiet day on the Street. Although, the “Swing Trader Bulletin” had locked in a couple of handsome profits from positions like Concur Technologies Inc (CNQR) +7.69%; Dresser-Rand Group Inc (DRC) +3.47% …etc. In less than a week, 2 out of the 7 different portfolio positions locked in a profit of 5-10%. 3 out of the 7 different portfolio positions locked in a profit of 1-5%. And only 2 got stopped out at a breakeven-to-slightly-negative (about 1%).

Editor’s Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

“Cubes Speculator Bulletin” September 5, 2007

• Price seems to be stabilized around the $49 level. [Expect the QQQQ] to move sideway, within the $48.80-49.50 range Thursday.

The QQQQ traded back and forth within the $48.81-$49.36 range, which was pretty close to the expected range. Any options traded could have accumulated more than 30% intraday.

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Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on September 5, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年9月6日 (週四) 的市場技術分析。

正如我們在昨天的前瞻分析中預料的那樣：“股市很容易遭到新一輪獲利回吐的攻擊”。果然，隨著對信貸市場的擔憂的再次抬頭，週三股市全面低收。

金融股指數(BKK)週三惡化。此前華爾街日報報道稱：持有結構性投資工具(SIV)25%市場份額的花旗集團(C)可能會招致進一步的虧損。

顯然，BKX正朝重新考驗8月16日低點的方向邁進。我們說過，如果該指數跌破這一點，金融股將再跌10%。而就像我們在7月18日所說的那樣——“金融股[已經]進入長期的熊市”。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。不出所料，該指數在考驗1500點阻力位遭遇更強勁的一股賣壓之後重新開始了7月-8月的下跌趨勢。1430點-1370點區間為該指數的一層支撐位。目前，短期阻力位約為1500點。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。和標普500指數類似，該指數同樣在考驗50日均線阻力位遭遇更強一波賣壓的襲擊之後重新開始了7月-8月的下跌趨勢。短期支撐位為200日均線——約12900點。13500 -13700點區間為該指數的一層阻力位。

總結：我們在幾天前的前瞻分析中就指出：股市最近發生的事情很多(如信貸危機、能源危機…等等)，因此只要主要指數一直在8月8日高點的關鍵阻力位的下方運行，我們就仍將保持懷疑態度[即看跌]。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on September 5, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday September 06, 2007.

As predicted right here in the previous Market Outlook “stocks look vulnerable for a fresh round of profit taking” equity market finished Wednesday session with widespread lost amid a renewed worry about credit markets.

Financial stocks (BKX, -1.94%) turned for the worse Wednesday after the Wall Street Journal reported that Citigroup (C), which owns about 25% of the market in structured investment vehicles (i.e., SIV), may be vulnerable to further losses.

Apparently, the BKX is heading for a retest of August 16’s low. As mentioned, a failure to hold above this level will open the door for another 10% drop in the financial stocks. And as we’ve opined on July 18 – “financial stocks [had entered] a secular bear market.”

Let’s take a look at the major indices charts:

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. As expected, the board market index resumes the July-August downleg after an attempt to test resistant at the 1500 level was met with an even more aggressive wave of selling pressure. The index has a layer of support that runs from 1430 to 1370. Short-term resistant is about 1500.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Similar to the S&P 500 Index, the blue-chips index had also resumed the July-August downleg after an attempt to test resistant at the 50-day moving average was met with an even more aggressive wave of selling pressure. Short-term support is at the 200-day moving average, about 12900. The index has a layer of resistant that runs from 13500 to 13700.

Bottom line: as we’ve noted right here a couple days ago, there is there is a lot going on in this market (e.g., credit crunch, energy crisis…etc) and we, therefore, would remain skeptical [read: bearish] as long as prices trade below key resistant at August 8’s high.

Until next time, good luck.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.