Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is the daily Stock Picks for August 15, 2007. Subscriber, please click here to login.

This is the Market Outlook for August 15, 2007. Subscriber, please click here to login.

Editor’s Note: this is a small sample of the content available on the “Swing-Trader Bulletin“.

Needless to repeat, today was another very weak day on the Street and so the “Swing-Trader Bulletin”. However, the end results weren’t that bad. As a matter of fact, of the five different Portfolio holdings three still hold unrealized gains!

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This is Capital Essence’s “Trading the Market” Bulletin for August 15, 2007. Subscriber, please click here to login.

Editor’s Note: this is the free edition of the Market Outlook. To receive the daily edition everyday before market open, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate. 

這是Capital Essence對2007年8月14日 (週二) 的市場技術分析。

如前所料，週一股市全面低收，其中尤以金融股跌幅最大。儘管全球各中央銀行為緩和信貸危機紛紛作出努力——歐洲中央銀行昨天再次向市場注資650億美元；美聯儲更在前兩個交易日注資約2150億美元的基礎上再次注入20億美元——但股市整體情緒仍然低落。

圖中可以看出，銀行股指數(BKX)形勢惡化，昨天再跌1.14%。密切關注上週低點的關鍵支撐位(101點附近)，因為一旦持續跌破該點位， 該指數對於06年低點(92點)的考驗將從此開始。06年低點據此只有10點左右。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。該指數繼續盤旋在關鍵阻力位1427點位置。請對該位置加以密切關注，因為一旦持續跌破該點位，大盤考驗3月低點(約1360點)的可能性將會增大。目前，阻力位約為1490點。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。該指數繼續在具有看跌意味的頭肩型態的頸線附近盤旋。這當然不是非常鼓舞人心。因此，如果大盤持續跌破該位置，看跌的型態將會形成，而同時這也將至少表明春季的看漲突破點(約為12800點)將受到考驗。目前阻力位約為13650點。

總結：儘管全球開始新一輪的旨在增加市場流動性的注資，但金融板塊的深度惡化並當選昨日表現最差板塊的事實表明，拋壓結束還遙遙無期。然而，多數主要股指在各自上週低點的關鍵支撐位上守的時間越長，下跌的風險就越低。

Editor’s Note: this is the free edition of the Market Outlook. To receive the daily edition everyday before market open, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday August 14, 2007.

As predicted, equity market closed lower across the board Monday led by financial stocks.

Despite the worldwide central banks’ efforts to smooth flow of credit – the ECB added another $65 billion into money markets today, on top of roughly $215 billion the prior two sessions, the FED also injected $2.0 billion to the system – the overall sentiment remains…blue.

As you can see, the Bank Index (BKX) turned for the worse today, down another 1.14%. Keep an eye on key support at last week’s low, around 101 for a sustain breakdown below this level could open the door for test of the 06’s low, around 92 – that’s about 10% from where we sit.

Let’s take a look at the major index charts:

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. The index continues to hover around key support at the 1427 level. Keep this level on your trading radar for a sustain decline to below it, will increase the probability for a test of March’s low around 1360. Resistant is about 1490.

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. The index continues to hover around the potential bearish Head-Shoulder pattern’s neck-line. This is not very encouraging. With that said, a sustain decline below this level will complete the bearish pattern and hence, suggests a test of, at least, the spring’s bullish breakout about 12800. Resistant is about 13650.

Bottom line: the further deterioration in the financial and the fact that it was also the day’s worst performing sector, despite a fresh round of liquidity injection around the globe, suggested that the selling is far from over. However, the longer the majority of major indices hold above key support at last week’s low, the lower the downside risk.