Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is the Market Outlook for August 07, 2007. Subscriber, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Trading the Market” Bulletin for August 07, 2007.  Subscriber, please click here to login.

Editor’s note: this is a free edition of the Market Outlook. To get the lastest version every evening, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

這是Capital Essence對2007年8月6日 (週一) 的市場技術分析。

伴隨著新一輪的信貸危機的加劇，上週五股市暴跌。標普500指數下跌40點，收於1433點，跌幅為2.66%。

我們對金融板塊看跌的預期也已不再是什麼秘密。事實上，自2007年7月18日以來，我們對該板塊一直堅定地保持著的負面看法。

總的來說，我們認為空頭一方還將繼續佔有優勢，但繼2個星期內出現了12%的跌幅之後，金融板塊當前超賣現象十分嚴重。因此，該板塊很可能橫盤整理一段時間，甚至會出現一次小幅反彈。正如我們7月18日所說的那樣：“金融股正進入一個長期的熊市”

來看主要股指：

上圖是標普500指數的短期日線圖。果然不出所料，該指數在1490點這一“先前的支撐位，現在的阻力位”附近波動之後，開始暴跌。技術面而言，這 次拋售增大了大盤下探3月低點(1364點附近)的可能性。要確認這一點，還需本週大盤的跟進下跌。目前，短期支撐位約為1410點，短期阻力位約為 1460點。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。和標普500指數類似，該指數也在“先前的支撐位，現在的阻力位”—— 50日均線附近波動之後，開始反轉。我們之前的觀點——“如果該指數沒能守住50日均線，大盤下探2月高點(12800點)的可能性將增大”——仍然有 效。當前，短期支撐位約為13132點，短期阻力位約為13550點。

上面是納指的短期日線圖。從圖中可以看出，該指數已回調至上次亮麗反彈的起始位置附近。因此，只要該指數保持在這一位置之上，多頭仍將佔據上風。儘 管如此，請記住，如果該指數持續跌破該位置，大盤下探3年半以來的上升通道支撐位(約為2200點)的可能性將會增大。當前，短期支撐位約為 2490點，短期阻力位約為2600點。

總結：不出所料，繼上週拋盤之後，空頭已經佔據了市場主動。儘管如此，正如上面所說的那樣，股市出現嚴重的超賣現象。因此，我們預計股價在繼續走低之前，會橫盤整理一段時間，甚至會出現一次小幅反彈。

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this is a free edition of the Market Outlook.  To get the lastest version every evening, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday August 06, 2007. 

Equity market plunged Friday amid a fresh round of credit concerns (read: financial melt-down) with the S&P 500 Index dropped about 40 points or 2.66% to finished at 1433.

Our bearish outlook on the financial stocks has certainly been no secret.  As a matter of fact, we’ve been pounding the table with a long thread of negative comments on the sector since July 18, 2007 – see “Watch out for a correction”.  

General speaking, we believe the opportunities will continue to come on the short side, but the sector is pretty much oversold following the sharp 12% slide within 2 weeks and hence, it’s likely to move sideways for sometimes or even experience a little bounce, but not much.  As we’ve said back on July 18, “financial stocks are entering a secular bear market.”

Let’s take a look at the major indices:

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame.   Unsurprisingly, last Friday’s plunged came right after the index had exhibited a textbook churn around the “previous support, now resistant” – 1490 level.  Technically speaking, the sell-off had increased the probability for a test of March’s low about 1364.  A downside follow-through this week will confirm this.  Short-term support is about 1410.  Short-term resistant is about 1460.

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame.  Similar to the S&P 500, the blue-chips index also rolled over followed a churn around the “previous support, now resistant” – 50-day moving average area.  The previous comment: “a failure to take out [resistant at the 50-day moving average area] will increase the probability for a test of the February’s high about 12,800” – see August 3 Market Outlook – remains intact.  Short-term support is about 13132.  Short-term resistant is about 13550.

The NASDAQ Composite Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame.   As you can see, the index had pulled back to the area that precedes a nice rebound in the past.  With that said, the bulls shall prevail as long as the index hangs above this level.  Although, bear in mind that, a sustain decline to below it will increase the probability for a test of support at the three and a half year rising channel – about 2200.  Short-term support is about 2490.  Short-term resistant is about 2600.

Bottom line: as expected, the bears had got into the driver side of the market after last week sell-off.  Although, as noted above, the market is pretty much oversold and we, therefore, think prices could move sideways for sometimes or even experience a little bounce, but not much, before a leg lower.

Until next time, good luck.

 Note:

Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter.  To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.