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Archive for August 2, 2007
Swing-Trader Bulletin Portfolio Update
For a second day in a row, stocks stayed relatively calmed until the late surge took the major indices higher. Overall, it was a good day on the Street and so the Swing-Trader Bulletin. Advent Software Inc (ADVS) printed another new 52-week high today, gained about 2% to $39.63. The stock gained almost 10% since profiled 3 days ago. Accuray Inc (ARAY) gained 41 cents or 2.15% to $19.52. The new short position, Cash
On the downside, Vcg Holding Corp. (PTT) lost almost 4% on high volume. Glad that we’ve took a most of the money off the table yesterday. However, unless the stock takes out the July’s low, this pullback could be taken as a good buying opportunity for aggressive traders.
技術前瞻：決定性反彈可能持續數天
這是Capital Essence對2007年8月2日 (週四) 的市場技術分析。
在昨天的前瞻分析中我們說過：“週二最後60分鐘的大跌表明股市可能已經進入短期的賣家投降期，而這也增大了大盤在本週中期向上反轉的可能性”。果然，週三股市展開強勢反彈，從而確認了我們“牛勢反轉”的觀點。
顯然，股市波動又在華爾街捲土重來。週三，道指在收盤前猛漲150點之前，一直在一個258點的區間波動。雖然股市整體波動性較大，我們Swing-Trader Bulletin 推薦的倉位仍然獲得了不錯的盈利。除Vcg Holding Corp. (PTT) 和Nyse Euronext (NYX) 的倉位已經獲利之外，其他持股如Advent Software Inc (ADVS)也有上佳表現，該股週三大漲2.16%，創下52周新高。Southwest Gas Corp (SWX) 也上漲了1.38%，達到31.51美元。同時，Magma Design Inc (LAVA) 上漲19美分，達到15美元，漲幅為1.28%。星巴克 (SBUX) 收穫53美分，股價漲至27.21.美元，漲幅1.99%。
來看主要股指：
上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。該指數看上去似乎會在移動平均線支撐位附近穩定下來。然而，在多頭成功佔據上方1490點附近的阻力位之前，我們還不算安全。當前，支撐位區間約為1450-1440點，阻力位約為1490點。
上面是道指的短期日線圖。該股指在最後60分鐘出現買進狂潮，收盤暴漲150點。毋庸贅言，這當然是看漲的信號。然而，在多頭成功佔據上方13350點附近的阻力位之前，我們仍處於危險期。
總結：週三的牛勢反轉很可能是一次關鍵性反彈的開始，而且此次反彈可能持續數天。確認這一點，還需要今天的跟進上漲。
Until next time, good luck.
Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.
Snapback Rally
Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday August 02, 2007.
As predicted, equity market staged a strong snapback rally Wednesday and hence, confirmed our “bullish reversal” notion – “the magnitude of Tuesday’s last hour decline suggests that the market might have reached a short-term seller capitulation and hence, increased the probability for a mid-week bullish reversal” – see Market Outlook August 1, 2007.
Apparently, market volatility had returned to the Street with the Dow swung within a 258-point range Wednesday before finishing with an impressive 150 points gain. Despite the overall volatility, our Swing-Trader Bulletin continues to enjoy a nice ride. Aside from pocketing a nice profit from the Vcg Holding Corp. (PTT) and Nyse Euronext (NYX) positions, we’ve also enjoyed nice gains from other portfolio positions like Advent Software Inc (ADVS) – the stock had an excellent day, rose another 2.16% Thursday – a new 52-week high. Southwest Gas Corp (SWX) rose 1.38% to $31.51. Magma Design Inc (LAVA) gained 19 cents or 1.28% to $15. Starbucks Corp (SBUX) rose 53 cents or 1.99% to $27.21.
Let’s take a look at the major indices charts:
The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. The board market index appeared to be stabilized around the area of moving average support. However, we ain’t out of the woods yet until or unless the bulls manage to take out the overhead resistant around 1490 level. Support is about 1450/40. Resistant is about 1490.
The Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. The blue-chips index posted an impressive 150 points gain for the day amid the last hour aggressive buying spree. Needless to repeat, this action is bullish. However, we ain’t out of the woods yet until or unless the bulls manage to take out the overhead resistant around the 13,550 level.
Bottom line: more likely than not, Wednesday’s bullish reversal is the beginning of a snap back rally that will last for a couple of days. An upside follow-through tomorrow will confirm this.
Until next time, good luck.
Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.
