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Archive for July 26, 2007
技術前瞻：小心多頭的偷襲
這是Capital Essence對2007年7月25日(週三)的市場前瞻分析。
我們在昨天的前瞻分析中說過：“週一的交易狀況表明……週二的盤面可能偏弱”。結果，週二股市全面大跌。不出所料，小型股和科技股所受的打擊最為沉重。說到科技股，我們在昨天的“Cubes Speculator Bulletin” 中說過，“納斯達克100指數ETF(QQQQ)即將展開下一輪大行動，最早可能於明天開始……如果跌破49.64美元將破壞短期強勢的前景，從而招致進 一步的下跌。假如真的出現這種情形，預計它將考驗49美元支撐位。”週二，QQQQ破位，盤中最低跌至49.05美元。履約價為49美元的價外看跌期權當 天獲利高達100%。
同樣在我們預期範圍之內的是，金融股遭到猛烈拋售，週二下跌了近3%——我們曾經在幾天前對該板塊有過負面的評論。
可以看出，銀行指數(Bank Index)(BKX)輕鬆擊穿了109點支撐位。這是一個看跌信號，因為我們說過，金融板塊在標普500指數中佔有最大的權重，假如金融股下跌的話，標普500指數無疑也要跟著走低。中期支撐位約為105點。
來看主要股指：
上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。該指數昨天下破1530點支撐位，進入了50天均線支撐區間。這是一個非常重要的水平，應該密切予以關注。短期阻力位約為1555點。
上面是道指的短期日線圖。週二暴跌之後，該指數進入了趨勢線所構成的支撐區間。記住，一旦跌破這個水平，特別是在量能放大擊穿13200點的情況下，將完成一個看跌的“牛市陷阱”型態。短期支撐位約為13600點，短期阻力位約為14020點。
總結：經過週二的大跌之後，標普500指數僅僅比新高低了2.5%，這簡直難以置信。如果歷史可以作為我們的指導，那麼撿便宜的買家最早將於今天偷襲華爾街。
Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.
The bull case remains intact
Editor’s Note: The following article was written by Michelle Mai of Capital Essence. It has been reproduced with permission for the benefit of the S.M.R community.
Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday July 26, 2007.
We’ve opined right here in our previous Market Outlook that “bargain hunters could raid the Street as soon as tomorrow” – see “Snap Back Bounce” July 25, 2007; equity market closed higher across the board Wednesday. As a matter of fact, Wednesday trading action was also consistent with what we’ve predicted in our Tuesday evening “Cubes Speculator Bulletin” – “technically speaking the “cubes” had reached a short-tem oversold condition after Tuesday sell-off and we’re, therefore, expecting a rebound into the $49.60-80 area tomorrow.” The NASDAQ-100 Index ETF (QQQQ) opened in a positive tone Wednesday and hit as high as $49.67.
It worth notice that the financial stocks did pretty well in Wednesday rebound (see chart below).
As mentioned, the financial stocks have been the “tells” for as long as I can remember and hence, they should be on your trading radar. Again, as goes the bank, so goes the tape!
Let’s take a look at major indices:
The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. As expected, the board market index rebound nicely followed the successful test of support around the 50-day moving average area. As mentioned, this is a very important zone and it should be on your radar. Short-term resistant is about 1555.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. Similar to the S&P 500, the blue-chips index also rebound nicely followed the test of support around the 50-day moving average area. Short-term support is about 13600. Short-term resistant is about 14020.
Bottom line: now that both of the “overbought correction” and “buy the dip” scenarios that we’ve discussed in the previous Market Outlooks had played out nicely, what’s next? Technically speaking, the upside should be given the benefit of the doubts. With that said, we shall hang on to the bullish stance as long as the majority of major indices hold above June’s low.
Until next time, good luck.
Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.
