Swing Trader Bulletin 每日精股推薦
Daily Swing List for $ July 24, 2007
Archive for July 23, 2007
技術前瞻：超買嚴重需要修正
這是Capital Essence對2007年7月23日(週一)的技術前瞻分析。
不出所料，自從我們於7月18日對金融股作出負面評論之後，這個板塊連續三個交易日下跌。
大家可以看到，銀行指數(Bank Index)(BKX)正在考驗112點至109點的重要支撐位。雖然這個板塊仍然看跌，但我們並不認為上述支撐位會在一天之內就被擊穿。因此，除非媒體 頭條報道說每一個人都看跌，否則預計在這個水平會出現一定的買盤。以前說過，這個板塊過去四年來一直是市場的領先指標，所以應該密切加以關注。
昨日焦點股：Williams-Sonoma Inc.(WSM)自2007年6月以來就是我們“Swing Trader Bulletin”的核心持股，上週五大漲近9%，之前Cowen & Co.一位分析師向長期投資者推薦此股，理由是該公司的復甦仍在有條不紊地進行。
來看主要股指：
上面是標普500指數的中期週線圖。上週看漲突破之後，該指數在高點附近整固。除非空頭能夠將該指數重新打壓至上週低點1560點之下，否則阻力最小的通道仍然是向上。支撐位約為1506點至1490點，阻力位約為1600點。
上面是道指的中期週線圖。從相對強弱指數(RSI)來看，道指的超買程度很嚴重，理當進行修正，這可能是時間上的修正(橫向區間整固)，也可能是價 格上的修正(股價大幅下跌)。因此，只要該指數保持在13600點至13200點支撐位之上，我們將頭一個在回調時買進。阻力位約為15000點。
上面是納指的中期週線圖。受Google(GOOG)利空財報影響，上週五科技股遭到沉重打擊。事實上，上週五的交易狀況與我們在“Cubes Speculator Bulletin” 週四晚間內容中預計的非常吻合——“納斯達克100指數ETF(QQQQ)日線圖上形成了一個看跌的『十字星』型態，預計會有所走弱……如果跌破 50.31美元將確認這種分析，進而繼續考驗49.64美元，儘管在期權到期日價格可能被釘在50美元。”果然，上週五QQQQ努力挽回上午的弱勢——盤 中一度跌至49.74美元，最終收盤於50.05美元。一個來回的任何期權交易盤中可迅速獲利至少30%。
技術面而言，納指在過去幾週強勁上揚之後已經處在嚴重超買狀態。因此，上週的下跌可能是預期中時間更長盤整的開始。支撐位約為1635點，阻力位約為2001年高點(約2893點)。
總結：市場嚴重超買，因此理當進行修正，修正可能是時間上的，也可能是價格上的。然而，只要主要股指大多數能夠保持在6月低點的支撐位之上，我們就將逢低買進。
Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.
Overbought (…)
Editor’s Note: The following article was written by Michelle Mai of Capital Essence. It has been reproduced with permission for the benefit of the S.M.R community.
Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday July 23, 2007.
As expected, the financial stocks continued to slide for a third day in a row followed our negative comment on the sector – see “Watch out for a correction” July 18, 2007.
As you can see, the Bank Index (BKX) is testing the important support at the 112-109 level. While remains bearish on the sector, we do not expect this level to be taken in a single strike. With that said, unless there is a headline(s) that everyone recognizes as bearish, expect some sorts of buying support around this level. As mentioned, this sector has been the “tells” over the past four years and it should be on your trading radar.
Stock of the day: shares of Williams-Sonoma Inc. (WSM), profiled as a long holding in our “Swing Trader Bulletin” back in June ’07, jumped almost 9% last Friday, after a Cowen & Co. analyst recommended the shares to long-term buyers, saying the company’s turnaround is still on track.
Let’s take a look at the major index charts:
The Standard & Poors 500 Index (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term frame. The board market index is consolidating near high after last week’s bullish breakout. Unless, the bears manage to take out last week’s low @ 1560, the path with least resistant is still to the upside. Support is around 1506-1490. Resistant is about 1600.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term frame. As the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) suggests the blue-chip index is pretty much overbought and is due for a correction which could be in time (i.e., consolidation or basing sideway) rather than in price (i.e., sharp decline in price). With that said, as long as the index sustains support at the 13600-13200 level, we’d be the first-in-line to buy any dips. Resistant is about 15000.
The NASDAQ Composite Index (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term frame. Tech stocks got hit hard Friday amid Google’s (GOOG) bad earning report. As a matter of fact, Friday trading action was very consistent with what we’ve predicted in our Thursday evening “Cubes Speculator Bulletin” – “the “cubes” printed a bearish “doji” on the daily chart. Expect some weaknesses…a decline to below $50.31 will confirm this and a test of $49.64 is, therefore, expected. [Although] price could get pin @ $50 into option expiration day” the NASDAQ-100 Index ETF (QQQQ) managed to overcome early weakness – it hit as low as $49.74 – to close @ $50.05 Friday. Any round-trip option traded could have made a quick profit of at least 30% intraday.
Technically speaking, the index is pretty much overbought after the strong advance over the past couple weeks. With that said, last week decline could be the beginning of the long anticipated correction. Support is about 1635. Resistant is at the 2001 high – about 2893.
Bottom line: the market is pretty much overbought and hence, due for a correction, which is likely to be in time rather than in price. With that said, as long as the majority of major indices sustain support at the June’s low, we’d buy this dip.
Until next time, good luck.
Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.
